One of the very notable patterns in stock markets is that they tend to rise between November and April. This pattern is seen across most stock markets over all the world and is the reason for the Wall Street saying, sell in May and go away.

Here is the seasonal pattern for the S&P500 from November 01 to the end of April for the last 71 years. The S&P500 has risen 52 times and only fallen 18 times. This means that there has been 74.29% of winning trades during this time.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if the Fed respond to rising inflation by bringing forward interest rate hikes more quickly than is currently anticipated. This could cause a headwind for US stocks this year.

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