US labour data is in key focus today as it will set expectations for the next rate move from the Fed. If the US labour data disappoints markets with the headline below 110K, unemployment above 3.8%, and hourly earnings below 4.2% then gold may move sharply higher. A miss in the jobs print is likely to be interpreted by investors as the Fed needs to do less on rates. This is because weak job data is seen as deflationary from a monetary policy perspective.

The event bias on Seasonax sees a 60% bias for the upside in the 4 days after the US labour report. So, will this buying bias help gold upside on a US NFP jobs miss?

Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would be if the US jobs data comes in very strong as this would typically be a headwind for gold.

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