The prospect of the US announcing a taper timeframe at the Jackson Hole Symposium has boosted the USD this week. Comments from Clarida & Bostic as well as a strong NFP print have all led to expectations of coming US policy normalisation. This has sent the USDJPY sharply higher and, as long as this outlook remains, should keep the pair supported on dips. It is also worth being aware of the strong seasonal bias the USDJPY pair has.

Over the last 10 years, the USDJPY has risen 70% of the time between September 01 and December 31 with an average return of +4.32%. The largest gain was in 2014 with a 14.68% gain. The largest loss was in 2020 with a -2.60% loss.

Major Trade Risks: Any weak US economic data could cause the Fed to delay any tapering announcement and mean the USDJPY pair finds a weakness.