The FTSE 100 typically has a very strong time of year in December. With European stocks still offering better value than US stocks, will we see a rise higher in the FTSE 100 into year-end? There are a number of risks around the markets at the moment including the new South African variant which would likely be vaccine-resistant. Therefore, traders should be extra vigilant. Please note that just because a virus is virulent it does not mean that it is deadly. There are still a lot of unknowns.

Over the last 15 years, the FTSE 100 has risen 12 times out of 15. The average return has been 2.70%. The largest gain was in 2008 and the largest loss was in 2018. The question now is will this seasonal pattern play out again this year?

Major Trade Risks:

  • A move towards earlier interest rates from the Fed will change this outlook as well any strong risk-off trading.
  • Any bad news on the new variant from South Africa could change this outlook too.