Oftentimes, around the end of the year, the market has a seasonal patch of USD weakness. The major currency pairs can benefit from this. Last week the ECB announced the end of their PEPP program in March 2022 and the APP program was not going to be as large as some analysts thought. That means that the euro could see some strength this week.

We now see that over the last 21 years EURUSD has gained +0.81% between December 22 and December 30.

Major Trade Risks: If the USD find significant strength on risk-off tones or thoughts the Fed will be hiking aggressively then that would invalidate this outlook.

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