There is seasonal USD strength around the start of the year and that weighs on the EURUSD pair. There is also a divergence in place with the Fed expecting three rate hikes this year and the ECB not anticipating any interest rate hikes this year. So, will the seasonal weakness in the EURUSD play out again this year?

Over the last 15 years, the EURUSD has fallen 9 times. The largest fall was in 2011 with a -3.07% fall. The largest gain has been in 2017 with a 1.61% gain. Will the EURUSD fall again this year?

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if there is a sudden change from the Fed’s expectations to raise interest rates 3 times this year or the ECB to leave rates unchanged.

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