The Euro has seen further weakness so far this week as growing fears emerge over a slowing global economy, Stagflation, growth, and inflation fears all combined to send the USD higher, and that weakens the EURUSD. Furthermore, the last PMI prints from France saw another surprise to the downside with the Final composite PMI reading for June coming in at 52.5 below the lowest expectation of 52.6. The JPY also typically sees gains over the summer months from a seasonal perspective. So, will the EURJPY pair now fall lower on growing concerns over a slowing Eurozone?

Over the last 15 years, the EURJPY pair has fallen 11 times between July 01 and September 08. The largest loss was -8.65% in 2008. The largest gain has been 3.22% in 2020 and the average fall has been -2.04%.

Major Trade Risks:

• If prospects for the eurozone economy pick up then that could invalidate this outlook.
• Any improvement in global sentiment more widely could also invalidate this outlook.

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