WTI crude oil has had a strong recovery since the record lows last year. A combination of vaccine rollouts and expectations of increasing oil demand have kept oil bought on dip buyers. The seasonal dynamic for WTI is also positive for oil over the last 10 years. From May 04 through to May 20 WTI crude has gained seven times in the last ten years. The average return has been +4.32% with a 164.05% annualised growth rate.
- The main risk to this trade is on a negative risk tone that weighs on oil prices.
- The emergence of a vaccine-resistant COVID-19 variant will also weigh on stocks.