On Friday we have the US CORE PCE print. The personal consumption expenditures print measures the spending on goods and services by the citizens of the United States. Around 2012, the PCE index became the main inflation index used by the Federal Reserve to inform its policy decisions. This will be used as a key gauge as to how the Fed is doing in the battle against inflation.

If the headline for the CORE PCE print comes in below 4.5% then that will mean the Fed has to do less to hike rates and that should weaken the USD. That will also mean that gold can gain higher. Also, note that gold has a distinct pattern around the start of the month. In April gold tends to gain as the new month gets underway.

Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here would be if the CORE PCE prints extremely high which would weaken gold. However, in that instance, it would not be unreasonable to expect medium-term buyers to step in from $1900.

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