The Russian/Ukraine crisis has been a terrible humanitarian crisis that has also created significant stress in energy markets. One of those markets that have seen significant gains over the last few months is natural gas. With Russia supplying nearly 50% of Europe’s gas supply and gas currently escaping out under the Baltic Sea after possible sabotage of the Nord Stream, the pressure has kept gas prices supported.

However, one development to look out for is any peace that develops between Russia and Ukraine. If there is a peace deal found then natural gas prices should immediately fall on relief that supply can come back into the market more freely. If you look at the seasonals you will notice that Natural Gas has a very weak seasonal period coming up. So, if there is an unexpected peace deal struck between Russia and Ukraine watch out for sudden Natural gas weakness in line with the weak seasonals.

Over the last 15 years, natural gas prices have fallen 11 times between October 01 and January 01. The average fall has been -13.63%.

Major Trade Risks: If there is no peace between Russia and Ukraine and Natural Gas supply continues to be disrupted we could see Gas prices buck their seasonal trend this year.

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