Focus on precious metals, silver and gold, now sits firmly on the FOMC meeting next week. If the Fed surprises markets next week and signals earlier and faster tapering, this will be expected to send US 10-year yields higher, USD higher, and pressure silver to the downside. So, check out the weak seasonal pattern that silver has below in case the Fed is more hawkish next week.

Over the last 10 years, silver has fallen nine times between Sept 22 and Nov 30. The average fall has been 7.91% and the gain was in 2018 with a 1.31% rise. The largest fall was in 2016 with a large -18.05% loss.

Major Trade Risks: If the Fed push back the timescale for tapering next week and are more dovish, that would support silver and invalidate this outlook. All eyes on the Fed!