One of the marked seasonal patterns around year-end in the currency space is that the dollar tends to fall. The weakness in the dollar causes a marked strength in EURUSD. So, watch out for any EURUSD strength starting from around December 20. Look at the strong seasonal pattern here.

Over the last 15 years, the EURUSD has risen between Dec 21 and Dec 30. The largest gain has been +1.55% in 2007 and the largest loss -0.74% in 2011. The percentage of winning trades has been 68.18%. The annualised return is 35.95%.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if omicron variant fears result in strong risk-off trading which could send the USD sharply higher on possible dollar risk-off flows.

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