The University of Michigan sentiment print last Friday was a big miss and that spooked the USD bulls. It is questionable whether that sentiment will last, but the next test for the USD is today with US retail sales and Fed’s Powell speaking. If we see another miss from the US retail sales and Powell stays dovish, then another move higher in silver would make fundamental sense on a weak dollar. Also, check out the strong silver seasonals.

Over the last 15 years silver has risen 66.67% of the time between August 17 and September 04 with an average return of +3.69%. The largest gain was in 2009 with a 16.24% gain. The largest loss was in 2015 with a -5.21% loss.

Major Trade Risks: Strong US retail sales and/or a bullish Powell will invalidate this outlook.