The fall in stocks recently has been on the Russian/Ukraine crisis and worries that global growth is going to be hampered by central banks hiking rates into surging inflation. However, covid-19 concerns are rapidly fading as successful vaccine programmes bring many countries back to more normal interaction. If Russian risk fades it is worth looking at the strong seasonal pattern in place for Walt Disney Shares.

Over the last 15 years, Walt Disney shares have risen 12 times between March 22 and May 09. The percentage of winning trades has been 80% and the average gain has been 7.84%. Does this mean Walt Disney shares could be worth considering if Russian/Ukraine risk fades? Or will the Fed still be hiking aggressive rate hikes?

Major Trade Risks:

  • The main risk here is that risk-off trading on geopolitical concerns over the Russian/Ukraine crisis results in further falls in stocks.
  • If the Fed keeps to their aggressive rate hiking cycle then stocks may see further selling.