The US CPI print on Wednesday at 13:30 UK time sits in a light calendar week for US data. The CPI print is likely to draw significant attention tomorrow to see how the US is doing in its fight against inflation.
Headline inflation is expected to fall again
Over the last year, headline inflation has been consistently falling in the US month over month. Today’s print is expected to show another drop with expectations of a 3.1% print which is down from the 4% prior.
The core inflation print has remained stickier in the US, as it has throughout many other major Western economies. The current reading is 5.3% and that is expected to fall lower to 5%.
What’s likely to move markets
The financial source team has a handy economic data tracker tool that shows the minimum and maximum expectations for the data print. This is helpful in assessing which data releases are needed to surprise markets.
For the headline reading, a print below 2.9% and a core reading below 4.9% will both be below the minimum expected from the economists surveyed. In the case of a low print, investors will be carefully watching gold for potential gains. However, be aware that a lower CPI print has been expected all week, so a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact response’ is also possible.
If the reading comes in above market expectations with a headline reading above 3.3% and a core reading above 5.1% then the USD could find strength again along with yields which would be a natural headwind for silver and gold. Note how gold is around a key daily trend line right now, and traders will likely use this as a reference point for risk. See it marked on the gold chart below.