Tesla recently reported that it is expecting record global vehicle deliveries for Q1. It has been able to exceed earnings expectations for some time now and Tesla’s pace of production has been high. It next reports earnings on April 25, so will they beat expectations once again? Tesla is also splitting stock which tends to push the price up. However, Tesla has quite a high price valuation, so that may put some investors off. The seasonal pattern is worth looking at.

Tesla shares have gained 9 times out of 11 years between April 01 and December 31. The largest gain was in 2020 with over 600% in profit. The average loss was only around -8% and the average return was greater than 50%. However, will Tesla shares be able to repeat their seasonal pattern as more and more electric vehicles coming to market? Does Tesla have a key competitive edge that will last over the medium term?

Major Trade Risks:

  • If global stocks fall on stagflationary fears this could weigh on new vehicle purchases as consumers spending power reduces.
  • Any unexpected bad news for Tesla can also weigh on the stock.