Short term fundamentals have been driving oil prices higher. There has been a sequence of low inventory reports since the start of the year, oil demand is expected to increase as COVID restrictions are expected to lift in more and more countries. There has been a number of reports highlighting that OPEC+ would probably struggle to increase production more from here even if they wanted to. All these factors are supporting oil in the near term. On top of this WTI has some strong seasonals. In the data below I have removed the 2020 data as it was an outlier and sole due to COVID.

In the last 21 years, US Oil has risen 15 times with an annualised return of 1129.34%. The largest gain has been over 25.30% and the largest loss was -7.36%.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk for this outlook is any major news that impacts the oil market. Also, notice that 5 and 10-year break even inflations are moving lower, which can drag oil prices in principle although they are not at the moment.