Around 100,000 Russian troops equipped with tanks, artillery, and supplies are hovering around the edge of Ukraine. The world waits to see if Russia does make an incursion into Ukraine. If Russia does there are a few markets that will instantly be hit. Let’s take a look at them below.
Russia supplies around 40% of Europe’s natural gas and it is the world’s largest gas exporter. Many investors are concerned that Russia, facing sanctions for a potential incursion into Ukraine, will hit back by cutting Europe’s gas supplies. This is why President Biden is trying to find other sources of natural gas for Europe to potentially replace Russia’s supply. However, it is quite hard to replace Russia’s supply and not possible to come from one country. So, should Russia make an incursion expect gas prices to surge?
Russia is the world’s 2nd largest exporter of oil. If they enter Ukraine then oil should shoot higher in a snap reaction.
Russia is a major producer of Aluminium, Nickel, and Palladium. All three of these metals have had supply problems recently, so any further supply problems will likely send them all sharply higher on a Russian invasion.
The USDRUB pair should surge higher as sanctions will inevitably fall down on Russia from the US, Europe and NATO.
So, keep an eye on these markets in the event of a Russian incursion into Ukraine as they should surge higher in an attack.