This is the time when the two competing narratives over the Fed’s path of rates get to test each other. STIR markets have been pricing in two rate cuts this…
The first thing to realise about yearly looks ahead is that they can prove to be spectacularly wrong. So, when looking ahead always be aware that these outlooks can change…
There is a big question in markets right now about whether or not the Fed futures rate curve is a fair reflection of what is to come for the US.…
This week is all about the Federal Reserve and what it communicates to markets about its terminal rate. The last FOMC meeting saw the Fed plays a masterful stroke. In…
Crescat Capital has been bullish on gold for a long time. It is a conviction that has been costing the company in the recent climate with USD strength, rising yields,…
US stocks are laser-focused on what the Fed’s speed of interest rate policy change is going to be. Surging inflation has been a big fear of the Fed and Jerome…
It’s all about inflation this week, US inflation specifically. In order to see the significance of Thursday’s PCE print we need to see the context of the US inflation story.…
This week sees the US retail sales release which is likely to cause some volatility on an out-of-consensus print. The miss in US inflation data last week resulted in immediate…
Going into the US midterm elections analysts were mostly split between three different positions: Those analysts who pointed to the strong seasonal pattern in US stocks post the US midterm…
According to Bloomberg, there is a possibility for S&P500 to rise over 0.5% if the Republicans hold onto Congress but to fall by 3.3% if the Democrats hold Congress. However,…