This is the time when the two competing narratives over the Fed’s path of rates get to test each other. STIR markets have been pricing in two rate cuts this…
The latest CFTC positioning shows that asset managers have been continuing to add to dollar short positions as a recent string of US data has shown that the US economy…
What to expect from the Fed on the 1st of February? The Fed should be about to pivot and it seems to be a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’.…
The latest inflation data from the ECB shows good news regarding consumer inflation. Consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months have fallen for the first time since May…
There is a discrepancy between the market and the Fed that provides a potential opportunity and it can impact the USD. In brief, the Fed projected no Fed rate cuts…
The latest Fed minutes sum up the conundrum for the market nicely when it comes to understanding what the approach to the USD and Fed policy is. The Fed minutes…
One of the factors that has kept the Fed on its hawkish rate path has been the resilience of the US labour market. Yes, the cost of living has increased,…
The USD is vulnerable to a time of weakness around the end of the year. This is due to US tax balancing that regularly sees USD flows out of US…
Very often around the end of the year, the market has a seasonal patch of USD weakness. The major currency pairs can benefit from this. The EURUSD pair is inversely…
Today the ECB meets during the London session and a positive surprise from the ECB could potentially shift the EUR higher. However, the best chance of EUR upside would likely…