Last week silver prices gained over 8% on the lower-than-expected US CPI print. Investors rapidly sold the USD last week as lower inflation increased the chances of the Fed holding rates for September’s meeting. This also meant that yields fell and silver enjoyed a double lift from weakness in both yields and the USD. So, is silver heading into a summer sweet spot?
Seasonally, there is a bias for silver gains you need to be aware of. Over the last 14 years, between July 20 and September 3, silver has gained just over 55% of the time for an average return of 7.86%. Will silver be able to repeat those gains again this year?
Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would be higher inflation prints out of the US and/or more hawkish Fed policy expectations.
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