There is a longstanding Wall Street saying which says to ‘Sell in May, and go away’. This is because summer has a reputation for being a weak time for US stocks. So, does that mean a summer slide is ahead for US stocks this year?
Let’s take a look at the seasonal pattern for the S&P500 between August 1 and October 1. Over the last 15 years, the S&P500 has fallen around 50% of the time for an average fall of 1.80%. Although it has been 50/50 whether the S&P500 falls through this time, the extent of the falls has been notable. In 2011 the S&P500 fell nearly 15%, in 2022 it had a 10.69% fall, and in 2015 an 8.30% fall. Will the S&P500 see similar falls again this year between Aug 1 and Oct 1?
Major Trade Risks: Previous seasonal patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves each year.
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