The fall in real yields alongside the fall in the USD surrounding rapid US rate re-pricing on the recent banking woes has been a great catalyst for precious metals. Gold is currently up 7% on the month and silver is up over 10%. Silver has some stiff resistance up above it just under $25, but the seasonal pattern does favour at least a retest of that $25 region. Technically, we have seen a breakout of the 20-day Donchian Channel to give a bullish bias from March 17.
Seasonally, silver has strength from March 29 to April 11 with a 72% winning percentage and a 2.17% average return. So, will we see more gains from silver and see $25 tested over the next few weeks?
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here would be if US inflation surges and the Fed do actually hike rates aggressively counter to what the market is expecting. The Fed could cause real yields and the USD to rise again and this is a natural headwind for silver.
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