Silver tends to have a very strong turn of the year as we head onto the end of the year. The last NFP jobs print was a disappointment and the Fed are now in their blackout period before their rate decision in the middle of December. One key question is will silver and gold see their regular seasonal pattern play out this year?

Over the last 10 years, silver has risen between Dec 23 and Fed 24. The largest gain has been +21.56% in 2011 and the largest loss -3.03% in 2012. The percentage of winning trades has been 80%. The annualised return is 54.52%.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if omicron variant fears result in strong risk-off trading which could send the USD sharply higher on possible dollar risk-off flows. This would weaken silver.

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