Why is silver demand expected to rise sharply in India? Quite simply, because of pent-up demand post-Covid. Supply chain issues and falling demand meant silver demand was pressured in 2020 and 2021. However, according to Bloomberg, silver sales are back on track. Silver imports for 2022 through to August are already over 6,000 tons. In 2021 India only shipped around 2,800 tons, so that means demand is already easily eclipsing 2021.

However, as we head into the year-end it is worth noticing silver’s seasonal pattern has favoured selling throughout November. If the Federal Reserve signals an imminent pause in US rates that could give silver an extra boost on a weaker USD as we head into December. So, is that the best time to wait before initiating any potential silver longs? Or will silver continue to track lower this year on a hawkish Federal Reserve? There are uncertainties at this stage, but the seasonal pattern is noteworthy.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk here is that the Federal Reserve have to keep hiking rates higher than the market is currently pricing and that is a headwind for silver prices.

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