The USD has a period of seasonal weakness around the start of June. Over the last 10 years it has fallen 7 times between May 31 and June 10. The average fall has been -0.93% and the maximum fall has -2.82%. Will the USD fall lower at the start of June again?

The USD is looking increasingly like it is close to peak bullishness. The latest CPI print showed a print above expectations for the headline and core, but it was still below the previous reading.

It is unclear whether the US has passed peak inflation but, if it has, the USD could move lower in June.

However slowing global growth can also cause the USD to gain, so the outlook for the USD is far from clear.

Major Trade Risks: Further USD gains on persistent US inflation pressures and USD gains on slowing global growth fears could invalidate this outlook.

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