Is Sugar set to fall?
The recent fall in equity markets leaves commodity markets vulnerable to a pullback. There is one market which has a very weak seasonal pattern ahead and that is sugar.
Over the last 21 years, sugar tends to lose its value after its harvesting period. Between 01 March and 01 April sugar has fallen a total of 16 times. The largest falls were in 2008, 2009, and 2020. The maximum fall was -27.30% last year. The average fall has been -6.86% and the total annualised return has been -56.65%.
The main risk to this trade is on any positive news for sugar from a fundamental perspective.