The USD typically tends to fall once the Fed’s hiking cycle begins. This is because investors front-run decisions, so by the time a decision is made it has long been anticipated by professional investors. This is why the peak for the USD in a hiking cycle is often around 1 or 2 months after the Fed’s start to hike. So, with this in mind could the USD start to show some weakness around now since the Fed has started signalling its aggressive rate hiking cycle? One argument against that is the fact that the USD also gains on risk-off sentiment due to the Russia/Ukraine crisis. If that crisis worsens then the USD could see further say haven gains. However, should Russia/Ukraine risk fade then the seasonal weakness for the USD could coincide with the typical weakness in the USD after the Fed starts its hiking cycle.

Between April 07 and May 01, the dollar has fallen a total of 16 times over the last 25 years. The largest fall was an impressive 4.30% fall in 2003.

Major Trade Risks: If there is an escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict expect the USD to gain on safe-haven flows.