The market has been trying to digest last week’s stunning NFP jobs report and all eyes were firmly fixed on Powell’s speech this Tuesday. Powell maintained his encouragement around the disinflationary process being underway and that sent the USD lower on Tuesday. Next week’s inflation data will be key for the USD’s direction near term. A period of uncertainty is ahead for US stocks that will likely last until next week’s hotly anticipated US inflation data. Oil markets made a nice bounce from support at $72 midweek. Will China’s bounce back prompt higher oil prices in the coming weeks?
Other key events from the past week
- USD: Powell brushes aside strong NFP, Feb 7: Powell was not placing too much emphasis on last Friday’s stellar jobs report, but did say that rates will have to be raised higher if jobs and inflation data reveal more upside surprises.
- US oil: Demand to come? Feb 9: The EIA raised its 2023 oil demand forecast by 60K BPD to 1.11mln BPD and 2024 forecast by 70K BPD to 1.79mln BPD. Will China surprise oil markets with a sudden demand surge? Watch oil.
- AI futures: Magnificent Microsoft? Feb 9: Artificial Intelligence news has been big this year. Microsoft has made a big investment in AI and if it pays off then it could be a stock to benefit significantly. Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019 and is poised to invest $10 billion more.
Key events for the coming week
- USD: US inflation data, Feb 14: US inflation data will be once again in focus after the surprisingly strong US NFP print. The headline print is expected to fall down to 6.3% from 6.5%, but will we see a high surprise that lifts the USD?
- Illumina shining? Does a bright light shine for Illumina stock?
- GBP: Inflation focus, Feb 15: The BoE may have made their last rate hike, but BoE’s Bailey says it’s too early to tell for sure. If UK inflation data next week fails to come down then expectations will rise again for another BoE hike to come.