On Monday, Nvidia gained over 8% on hopes surrounding its earnings due out on Wednesday after the US close. Tech stocks were also buoyed by a pushback on comments from WSJ’s Timiraos who believes Fed’s Jerome Powell is unlikely to talk about neutral rates at Jackson Hole.
The market is wanting to know if AI hype can translate into greater profitability for Nvidia and this could result in quite a volatile end to the week for Nvidia.
From a seasonal perspective, Nvidia has an interesting seasonal pattern ahead. September has been one of its weakest months, but it has still made more gains than losses between Aug 27 and Oct 11. However, when Nvidia has fallen during that time, the falls have been more pronounced and the average return during the period has been -3.27%.
So, will an earnings disappointment spark an aggressive sell-off in Nvidia?
Major Trade Risks: The main risk here is down to the earnings release as the market wants to see how much AI hype works into the company’s expected profits.
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