The Nasdaq is typically very sensitive to US interest rates and many analysts are considering the recent Nasdaq rally stretched. However, with US labor data being a major focus of the market, we may see another shift higher in the Nasdaq this week if US labor data surprises to the downside.
A weakening job market will give the Fed confidence to be less aggressive on its rate path which should support the Nasdaq in the very near term. However, in the medium term company earrings will come back to the foreground for the next significant move in the Nasdaq.
Seasonax’s event feature allows us to see the historic movement of the Nasdaq over the last 10 years over US labor market reports. In the three days prior and the three days after the report, the Nasdaq has gained on average 0.44%. So, will this mean that a weak jobs report will result in the Nasdaq gaining out of a weak NFP print?
Major Trade Risks: The biggest risk here is if the labour market readings come in strong as that will be a natural headwind for the Nasdaq.
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