Geopolitical risk remains elevated at the moment as the Russian/Ukraine crisis continues to drag on. The proximity of Europe to Russia has meant that European stocks fell on the initial invasion news. However, should the geopolitical risk fade then it is worth being aware of the very strong seasonal pattern that France’s 40 index has in place right now.

Over the last 22 years, the CAC40 has risen 18 times between the dates of March 22 and May 01. The Maximum gain was over 15% in 2001. The largest fall was -7.09% in 2012. So, the key observation here is that if Russia and Ukraine have a peace agreement over this week the CAC 40 should gain on that news alongside the strong seasonal pattern that is also in place.

Major Trade Risks: An aggressive rate hiking cycle by the Fed would weigh on global growth and could weaken global stocks.