This week saw negative sentiment dominate as markets faced a wall of worrying questions. Would big cap earnings meet expectations? Would China’s COVID lockdowns drag on global growth? Would Russia halting gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria happen to other countries as well? Global growth is going to come into increasing focus over the coming weeks and if it shows signs of slowing watch out for another leg lower in US stocks! Next week we have the Fed meeting, the RBA, and the BoE too so look out for volatility in FX markets. One key aspect to look for is a possible ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ response from the USD and more EURGBP gains into the BoE meeting.
Other key events from the past week
- Natural Gas: Russia halts flows, April 26: Russia halted natural gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria this week following through on their promise to stop flows to those not prepared to make payments in rubles. Will this send oil and gas higher in the coming days if other countries also see Russian bans?
- AUD: Inflation surge, April 27: Australian inflation rose to the highest level since 2009 with the trimmed mean print coming in at 3.7%. This was above the maximum reading expected of 3.6% and sets up growing expectations for an RBA rate hike next week. Will the RBA keep rates on hold though?
- Growth in focus: Stagflation or Reflation? April 28: Big cap earnings from Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, (Meta) Facebook, and Microsoft, lockdowns in China, and the prolonged Russian and Ukraine conflict are all potential risk factors for future growth. Watch out for signs that growth is slowing to send stocks lower.
Key events for the coming week
- AUD: RBA rate statement, May 04: The RBA meets next week and investors will be looking for signs of a clear hawkish tilt. Will this mark a turning point and send the AUDCAD pair higher on RBA rate hike signals?
- Seasonal trades: Sell in May and go away? Global stocks tend to be very weak in the summer months. The Dow Jones has marked an average negative return over the last 25 years between May 01 and July 01.
- USD: US rate statement? May 04: Market expectations are for a 50 bps rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Since bullish expectations are now well priced in for the USD, will the USD sell-off post FOMC on a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact response?’ Is this gold’s time to shine?