Listen to the latest market mood for the USOIL.

The fall in European equity futures and Asia-Pac indexes show the market entering the day with a risk-off setting.

The crude oil market has marched on recently with strength, but this rally is unsustainable. There is a swathe of negative news now for oil:

  • rising virus cases from California to Hong Kong,
  • stalling progress towards a US stimulus package,
  • rising US-China tensions,
  • approaching tropical storms that could shut down US refineries,
  • rising US stockpiles after another inventory build yesterday,
  • OPEC+ production cuts are set to expire next month.

Therefore expect oil sellers at market.

Swing trade outlook – We expect this trade to play out over the next 3-5 days.

Trade Risks:

  • If there is a positive turn in risk and risk-on sentiment returns that can keep oil’s rally going.
  • Surprise progress in the US stimulus bill could turn sentiment positive and invalidate this outlook.
  • Any good COVID-19 vaccine/treatment news could also invalidate this outlook.