Listen to the latest market mood for the USOIL.

The monthly OPEC oil report yesterday showed that oil demand growth for OPEC crude was revised down by 700K bpd to 22.6 milk bpd for 2020. The demand growth was revised down even further for 2021 by 1.1mln bpd to 28.2mln bpd.

The 2020 demand cut was due to weaker oil demand performance in the sector called ‘other Asia’, especially India. OPEC says a negative impact on oil demand in ‘other Asia’ is projected to spill over into 1H21 with slower recovery in transportation fuel demand in the OECD countries.

OPEC says risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly with COVID-19 related risks.

The weaker outlook for oil means that any rallies higher will find sellers. In particular, the return to the broken trend line on the daily chart looks an ideal spot for fresh sellers to enter.

Trade Risks:

  • A vaccine/successful treatment for COVID-19
  • A faster return to global oil demand