The GBP is in key focus today for an important data release at 09:30GMT.

The GBP has been moved around on two different forces recently. On the one hand, the GBP has been sold on a string of negative BoE comments, poor Retail Sales data, and pessimistic EU-UK future trade relations. This data left the GBP with the probabilities of a rate cut as high as 72%. However, on the other hand, good job data and business confidence release saw the GBP pick up this week and rate cut probabilities fell back to below 50% midweek.

So, today’s PMI data at 09:30 is expected to tip the balance one way or the other. Therefore, pay particular attention to this release and remember that a miss here will result in some strong GBP selling.

• If the risk tone is still off, then consider pairing the GBP with the JPY. (Sellers on the GBPJPY pair).
• If the risk tone switches to on, and there is a data miss for the GBP, consider pairing the GBP with the AUD. (Sellers on the GBPAUD pair).