Listen to the latest market mood for the GBPNZD pair.

Strong NZD, Weak GBP

The GBP is a vulnerable medium term until the UK has arranged an EU-UK trade deal. This limits the upside in the GBP and sellers have consistently been found on the GBP’s rallies higher. The NZD still has some of the lowest numbers of COVID-19 cases and the economy has been able to start operating before many other major economies. Therefore, expect GBPNZD sellers in the medium term. One key area for sellers will be the return to the descending daily trendline marked on the chart below where sellers can limit their risk.

Swing trade outlook – We expect this trade to play out over the next 2-4 days. However, the trade will remain valid for as long as its underlying factors remain valid.

Trade Risks

• If we see a swift rise in New Zealand COVID-19 cases that will invalidate this outlook.
• If we see progress between an EU and UK trade deal that will invalidate this outlook.