Listen to the latest market mood for the GBPJPY pair.

Weak GBP, Strong JPY

The Japanese Yen is finding bids on rising concerns over the increase in COVID-19 cases. New US Daily cases have been trending higher and Wednesday this week saw its second highest daily increase at 38,386.

Furthermore, Australia has reported its biggest rise in cases in the most populous state of Victoria. In Germany the Gov’t has re-imposed lockdown measures in the state of North Rhine Westphalia in response to rising COVID-19 case. This resurgence in COVID-19 cases will keep the JPY bid, especially if numbers keep rising from here.

The GBP is under pressure until the UK has arranged a Brexit trade deal. The UK can no longer extend the Brexit deadline and has until the end of October to present an acceptable deal to the EU. Furthermore, with global assets having stalled recently on second wave COVID-19 concerns (particularly in the US, Germany, China and Australia) the GBP’s outlook against the USD now looks weak as the USD has firmed on COVID-19 fears.

Therefore, expect GBJPY sellers on pullbacks.

SwingTrade – We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4 weeks, However, the trade will remain valid for as long as its underlying factors remain.

Trade Risks

  • Any positive news on a possible UK-EU trade deal will invalid this outlook.
  • If we see a swift fall in COVID-19 cases that will also invalidate this outlook.