Two of the strongest months for gold tend to be January and August. However, over the last 25 years, the weakest month for gold has been March. The early bounce in gold around the turn of the month has largely been on a retracement in the USD and yields after heavy re-pricing on Fed rates. However, the outlook moving forward for gold is likely to continue to reflect the path of US rates. Aggressive Fed hiking expectations, especially if Fed speakers start to talk about rates at 6%, would likely pressure gold further.

This could be enhanced by the seasonally weak month for gold as outlined in the video above.

Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here is if the Fed slows the path of rates and that could boost gold as the USD weakens and yields fall.

HYCM clients can access the Seasonax product in order to analyse over 25,000 currency pairs, indices, commodities, as well as individual stocks. Please contact your account manager for a free trial. Certain products & services mentioned herein may or may not be available to all clients depending on which HYCM Capital Markets Group entity their trading account(s) adheres to.