JPMorgan earnings are due out on Friday and the seasonal moves are quite interesting. From a seasonal perspective, the stock leans towards gains in the second half of April before a much weaker period over the summer months.

Analysts are expecting large US banks like JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America to announce customers withdrew billions of dollars in deposits at the start of 2023. So, one area to watch closely this earnings season for banks is what are customers doing with their deposits. If customers withdrew more deposits than expected this can reduce the bank’s capacity for lending. However, analysts expect revenues to increase for JPMorgan due to continued expectations of an uptick in retail operations activity.

If there are some surprises in the amount of outflows from big banks the seasonal pattern could indicate a weak time ahead for stocks. Could this weigh on JP Morgan’s share prices post-earnings as we head into the summer?

Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here is that the outlook for banks is strong and inflows from the SVB collapse offset the customer deposit outflows from the start of the year.

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