The pronounced weakness in the JPY has been getting more and more attention from the BoJ. On April 18 BoJ’s Kuroda said that the BoJ is keeping an eye on the impact of excessive FX movements on the economy. Further comments by Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki suggested that the demerits from the JPY weakening were greater than the merits under current circumstances. All of this means that eventually, the BoJ will take further actions to halt the advance of the USDJPY. So, this is why the seasonal pattern is so interesting here for the pair.

Between April 20 and September 01 the USDJPY has fallen a total of 13 times over the last 22 years. The average fall in price has been -1.91% during this time. The largest fall was -9.69% in 2010. The largest gain was +4.60% in 2008.

So, if the BoJ is starting to become concerned about a weak JPY does this mean that some of the bank’s future actions could cause the USDJPY pair to fall lower once again between now and September?

Major Trade Risks: If the BoJ changes its mind and sees further benefits in allowing the JPY to weaken further that could change this outlook.


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