One of the major concerns out of the US is the rising cases of the delta variant. Not only cases but also hospitalisations and deaths have been on the rise. Even the bullish Fed’s Kaplan expressed concerns last Friday about the potential impact of the rising defat variant. It could result in a changed outlook for the Fed. So, if the Fed is dovish this Friday then silver could soar significantly higher out of the meeting. Watch for any failure to mention tapering to sink the USD and boost silver.
From a seasonal perspective, over the last 17 years, silver has gained value from Aug 26 to Sep03. The average gain has been 2.73% and the biggest fall was in 2008 with a -5.34% drop. The largest gain was in 2009 with a strong 14.01% rise.
Major Trade Risks: If the Fed are more hawkish on Friday and mention early tapering, that should strengthen the USD and help send silver lower. All eyes on the Fed.