Gold has two times of the year when it seasonally gains. The turn of the year and the summer month of August. The reason for this is due to physical demand. However, this month the physical demand for gold out of India may be less. Only around 5% of India’s population is fully vaccinated, so the wedding season may be much slower this year. However, if the Fed remain very bearish and are happy to ignore inflation concerns then real yields will move lower and that will push gold higher.
So this could be a good time to buy gold after all. It is certainly worth being aware of the strong seasonals approaching for gold. Over the last 10 years, gold has risen a total of 07 times in 10 years between July 15 and September 04 with an average return of +5.09%. The largest gain was in 2011 with a 17.81% gain.
Major Trade Risks: Gold will fall sharply on any hints that the Fed is starting to consider bond tapering. So, watch out!