A string of recent US data points has led to a bid coming back into US Treasuries. The US jolts jobs missed, and US confidence missed the last PMI print in the middle of August. These data points, and others, have led to dollar weakness and a fall in yields. Furthermore, as recessionary risks grow, the appeal of precious metals like gold and silver also grows.

However, it is worth being aware of a strong seasonal pattern for silver in September. Over the last 15 years, Silver has fallen 10 times between September 4 and September 30, for an average drop of over 5%, so does this mean silver is due a pullback? Will the seasonals play out this year or will the seasonal fail to influence silver’s appeal given the current market dynamics?

This is definitely one instrument to watch as we see upcoming US data and the Fed meeting this month.

Major Trade Risks: The biggest risk here is that previous seasonal patterns are not a guarantee of future seasonal patterns.

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