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If the Fed reverse their hawkish stance gold could shine

If the Fed reverse their hawkish stance gold could shine

If the Fed reverse their hawkish stance gold could shine

in Seasonal Insights

Another really notable seasonal trend around this time of the year is gold strength ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Demand for physical gold around this time often lifts spot gold prices.

Over the last 15 years, gold has risen 11 times. The largest gain was nearly 20% in 2009. The largest fall has been -5.45% in 2013. The percentage of winning trades has been 73.3%. The question this year is whether gold can once again show its strong seasonal trend?

Major Trade Risks:

  • The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be on USD strength which is a natural headwind for gold.
  • Another key risk is if real yields keep rising alongside USD strength as this usually pressures gold sharply lower.
  • Also, note that with Bitcoin’s sharp rise last year some investment that went into gold as an inflation hedge went into Bitcoin instead. This means there are questions surrounding gold’s short term reputation as an inflation hedge.

HYCM clients can access the Seasonax product in order to analyse over 25,000 currency pairs, indices, commodities, as well as individual stocks. Please contact your account manager for a free trial and get started right away.


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HYCM Lab is a financial analysis source that provides regular insights on how global news affects the markets including forex, commodities, stocks, indices, and cryptocurrencies*. Run by the HYCM team, it equips traders with everything needed to make informed trading decisions.

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Legal Forms & Documents

Risk Warnings

Cookies Policy

Disclaimer: Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of HYCM. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. This material is considered a marketing communication and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation or, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. HYCM makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by an employee of HYCM, a third party or otherwise. Past performance is not an indication of possible future performance. Without the approval of HYCM, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Legal Information: HYCM is the trading name of Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited, HYCM (Europe) Ltd, HYCM Limited and Henyep Capital Markets (DIFC) Limited for which the Henyep Capital Markets group is holding company and its assets are a controlling equity interest in them.

* Cryptocurrencies are not available for trading under HYCM (Europe) Limited and Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited (retail clients only).

*Any opinions made in this material are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of HYCM. This material is considered a marketing communication and should not be construed as containing investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. HYCM does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation. HYCM makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or other information supplied by an employee of HYCM, a third party or otherwise.

Copyright © 2023 HYCM