From a seasonal perspective, stocks tend to do well over the turn of the month from around the 26th to the 5th. The most likely reasons for this is due to fund inflows and index payments that occur around the turn of the month.
With Seasonax’s event feature, you can see that the turn-of-the-month dynamics are quite different for different months. Take a look at the comparative weakness of August for the DAX around the turn of the month compared to other months.
So, does this information mean that you could time your entries into major indices to enter at the most advantageous seasonal period? Does this data reflect the typically weaker price action we see in summer for some of the major indices?
Major Trade Risks: The major risk here is to do with the market reaction to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and the US Core PCE print data that is out on Friday. Both of which can move stocks.
HYCM clients can access the Seasonax product in order to analyse over 25,000 currency pairs, indices, commodities, as well as individual stocks. Please contact your account manager for a free trial. Certain products & services mentioned herein may or may not be available to all clients depending on which HYCM Capital Markets Group entity their trading account(s) adheres to.