At the latest OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ will do “whatever is necessary” to support the oil market. Since the start of the year, many analysts were optimistic about oil prices. China’s post-Covid-19 recovery was expected to boost demand as was reduced supply from Russia as Western sanctions were meant to impact Russian oil levels getting to market. However, the first half of the year saw continually weaker prices for oil.

So, what does the rest of the year hold for oil? In many ways, it feels that much of the bad news has already been priced in. However, could there be further falls ahead on possibly even higher interest rates?

Looking at the seasonals is interesting. Over the last 15 years, between July 11 and Dec 18, oil prices have fallen over 50% of the time for an average fall of 14.66%. So, will oil bottom, or will weak seasonals give oil another shove lower this year?

Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would be that inventory levels fall and global demand picks up lifting oil prices bucking the seasonal trend.

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