Gold often has a very strong time of the year around the turn of the year. However, sometimes that trend can start early around November time. If Inflation expectations keep rising, but the Fed keep stating that they will be patient on rate hikes then that could mean real yields keep falling. If the USD and real yields both start dropping together then expect gold to keep lifting higher. Here is the seasonal pattern in place for gold right now.

Over the last 53 years, gold has risen 32 times between November 16 and February 22. The average gain has been +5.21%. The largest gain was +80.61%. The largest loss was -18.02%. There is never any guarantee that this seasonal pattern will repeat again this year. However, it is very helpful to notice when these strong seasonal patterns are in place.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if the Fed respond to rising inflation by bringing forward interest rate hikes.