One of the instruments that gained on the immediate threat of a Russian incursion into Ukraine was gold. The reason for this was the fact that US bonds saw a bid on risk aversion. So, if there is a sudden move by Russia into Ukraine one of the main beneficiaries is likely to be gold in the short term as bonds will be bought. The high inflation in the US will mean that bids into bonds will mean that real yields fall sharply and that means strength for gold. The only obvious risk here is that the USD can also gain on risk-off flows, so that can limit some potential upside for gold if the USD sees strong bids.

Gold has some strength towards the end of February between February 15 and February 23 with gains in 11 years of the last 15 years. The average return has been +1.25% and the annualised return was +80.83%.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk here is that the USD can also gain on risk-off flows.