On Friday, March 10, the US will release its jobs report for February. In the Fed’s thinking a ‘tight’ (strong) labour market is inflationary. So, if the jobs print comes in above 325K and average hourly earnings above 4.8% the Fed will see that as signalling more work to be done and that will raise expectations of a 6% terminal for the Fed.

However, the best opportunity for gold, the USD, and stocks would come from a big miss in the data. Taking a look at the reaction of gold over the US Labour Report we can see that gold has a tendency to push higher in the 3 days after the jobs report. So, would a big miss on Friday’s jobs data give gold investors a good short-term opportunity in buying gold?

Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here is if there is another strong jobs report which would naturally support the USD, yields, and weigh on gold.

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